Rate Reckoning Draws Closer
In other words, rates look like they’re ready to make a move.
Then in 2021, it was the last place that rates paused before their biggest post-covid surge.
This is the first time they’ve ever spent more than 2 weeks
in this zone (referred to below as the “indecision” zone).
The “macro risk” zone highlights the times where the global economy faced bigger challenges in the past decade
and it would be no surprise for rates to convalesce there if the covid situation progressively improves.
If there’s a covid resurgence and the labor market refuses to recover as fast as previously hoped, rates could easily move back to the recent floor marked by 1.15% in the chart above (which equates to the mid 2% range for best-case-scenario mortgage rates).
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